By Jessie R. Baldwin, Avshalom Caspi, Alan J. Meehan, et al., JAMA Pediatrics, January 25, 2021
Question Can screening for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) accurately predict individual risk for later health problems?
Findings In 2 population-based birth cohorts (with a total of 2927 individuals) growing up 20 years and 20 000 km apart, ACE scores were associated with mean group differences in health problems independent of other information available to clinicians. However, ACE scores had low accuracy in predicting health problems at the individual level.
Meaning ACE scores can forecast mean group differences in later health problems; however, ACE scores have poor accuracy in identifying individuals at high risk for future health problems.